Evaluating China’s calculations 

The question is still lively who is taking  responsibility for all the casualties taken in Galwan valley in the late evening of June 15. If we try to analyse the number of casualties we find that 20 on the Indian side, was the highest since 1967, and included that of a high ranking Colonel of the Bihar Regiment. The exact casualty details from chinese side as it was not officially declared yet,though they have conceded that at least one Colonel was among those killed.

With all these casualties, it can be easily analysed that with these incidents the future of China-India relations will be on stack. But,the meeting of the senior Commanders of India and China on June 22-23 appeared to reach a “mutual consensus” and embark on lowering “tensions” through a “gradual and verifiable disengagement”.

India is a bit keeping its cards closed and the debate  has so far been largely limited to China’s perfidy in violating the status quo. Many leaders came forward against the violating action of China . The former PM Dr. Manmohan Singh accused China of illegally claiming  parts of Indian Territory such as the Galwan Valley and Pangong Tso. Adding a bit of extra salt to the discussion  was Mr.Narendra Modi (Honourable PM’s) statements on June 19 upon discussing the issue that“there was no intruder on our land now and no post in anyone’s custody”.

China was sustaining its steps that India should move out of the valley. And to leave Galwan is not in the cards of India and it was clear that India will no longer ignore or resist it,by claiming the Galwan Valley, China has again opened it can be some of the issues left over from the 1962 conflict, and it can be easily analyzed that China is working  to embark on a new confrontation.

Equivocation still pertains to the Line of Actual Control (LAC),the Chinese “claim line” is since November 1959, while that of  India is since September 1962. Since the last few years, both India and China have not supported opening  the issue, but China has never given up its claims. China with its unilateral declaration is looking forward  to settling the matter in chinese favour. India is looking forward to manage this challenge

Aksai Chin and its worth for neighbouring bilateral relations

The matter that session by session is left over the government is still upto the current administrations in Delhi , China since last many years  has consistently asserted its claims over the complete Aksai Chin. Aksai Chin is valuable for China because it can provide direct connectivity between two of the most troubled regions of China, the first is  Xinjiang and other one is Tibet. The statement of then Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement last year laying claim to the whole of Aksai Chin has created kios among the chinese consortium

Assessing and analysing the intelligence 

The attack on the valley has raised a direct question over the failure of intelligence. It is regarding the context of the intelligence team that if they would have provided enough information then the government can make better decisions. Since it was expected from the intelligence team to have in depth understanding of ground reality somewhere it has raised the question on intelligence . The Chinese calculation now can be analysed from the front easily .Built-up in the Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso and Hotsprings-Gogra did not require any great intelligence effort, since there was little attempt at concealment by the Chinese. India is equipped with high quality imagery intelligence (IMINT) along with the signals intelligence (SIGINT) is divided among the NTRO, the Ministry of Defence and other,which make it possible to track chinese next steps 

It can not be ignored that India has developed its  technological capabilities for intelligence and tracking systems but one cannot ignore the fact that the capability of understanding and analysis has not kept speed with the advancement of technology upfront. Artificial intelligence have covered the world all together but analysing the data is still not in equal pace

Even so, since last year when it was known to all that the economy of China’s was declining and then there was a devastating pandemic situation that’s that of COVID-19 pandemic. China became   known to have become extremely sensitive and trying to conceal its economical weakness.China with this front is facing debate with United States

The Bilateral Meet was limited 

The limited meeting agendas has still kept the ideology of growth pending and with no specific obligations still the matter has nonconclusion

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